Nothing small about Pac-5 at-large call

Can a 5-5 football team be selected for an at-large playoff berth over a 7-3 team? Or even an 8-2 team?

Yes. And that just might happen.

This is the final week of the regular season in 11-man football (8-man football playoffs start this week). Football playoff seedings and first-round pairings will be released Sunday, and will be found at ocvarsity.com that day. Before seedings and pairings are out, the CIF-Southern Section office announces which teams qualified for the playoffs as at-large teams.

Teams that finish in the top half of their leagues' final standings automatically qualify for the playoffs – the top two in four-team leagues, the top three in six-team leagues, and the top four in eight-team leagues. In five-team leagues, the top three teams qualify automatically as do the top four in seven-team leagues.

Many divisions, once automatic qualifiers are identified, have room for one or more at-large teams.

The CIF-SS's Pac-5 Division has one at-large opening, and that's the one we're focusing upon here.

Teams that are .500 or better overall are eligible for at-large consideration. If a division has no .500-or-better team that did not automatically qualify for the playoffs, the teams with the next-best records are considered.

There is a CIF-SS at-large committee that will select the at-large teams for the playoffs. The committee – composed of a member of the CIF-SS executive committee, a CIF-SS administrator, a member of the CIF-SS football coaches advisory committee and a football coach at-large – will evaluate candidates based upon a weighted criteria that goes like this:

1. Head-to-head results of teams considered, four points.

2. Overall strength of the league of which the at-large candidates are members, one point.

3. Overall win-loss record, one point.

4. Results against common opponents, one point,

5. And strength of schedule, using overall win-loss record of a team's opponents, two points.

Teams that could be in the pool of at-large candidates in the Pac-5 Division are: in the South Coast League, Tesoro (4-5 overall, 2-2 in league going into this week); in the Sunset League, where coin flips might determine the 2-3-4 finishers: Fountain Valley (8-1, 3-1), Los Alamitos (7-2, 2-2); and Newport Harbor (5-4, 2-2); in the Trinity League, Mater Dei (5-4, 2-2) and St. John Bosco of Bellflower (5-4, 2-2); and, in the Serra League, Bishop Amat of La Puente (8-1, 1-1), Crespi of Encino (5-4, 1-1) and Notre Dame of Sherman Oaks (8-1, 2-0).

We could fill a book with all of the past results and this week's potential results that could factor in – like, in the Sunset League, if Fountain Valley beats Los Alamitos and Newport Harbor beats Esperanza, that would make Fountain Valley No. 2, Newport Harbor No. 3 and Los Alamitos No. 4 (Newport beat Los Alamitos) to leave Los Alamitos going for the at-large berth. There could be coin flips in the Serra and Sunset leagues, too.

Of the candidates listed here, there is only one head-to-head result – Fountain Valley beat Tesoro. Results against common opponents do not come in much either, except for Mater Dei's loss to Edison was by seven points in overtime, while Los Alamitos' loss to Edison was by 17 points in regulation.

And, of the candidates listed here, Mater Dei is way ahead in strength of schedule. Going into this week 10, Mater Dei's opponents are a cumulative 64-27. Tesoro's are 56-30-1, Crespi's are 51-39, Los Alamitos' are 50-40, and Fountain Valley's are 46-45, for some examples. That could be important.

What is going to be ultra-important is how the CIF-SS football coaches advisory committee on Tuesday ranked the Pac-5 leagues. That one point, from criteria No. 2, could make the difference in which team gets the at-large, and which does not. It is a subjective ranking.

Me? I rank them this way: 1. Serra; 2. Sunset; 3. Trinity; 4. South Coast; 5. Moore. It is my understanding that the coaches committee disagreed.

This week's games, and how that at-large committee evaluates leagues not only in the Pac-5 but in other divisions in which there is an at-large berth, are going to have significant impact.

The only thing for sure: Fountain Valley vs. Los Alamitos on Thursday and Mater Dei vs. St. John Bosco on Friday are huge games in all of this.