A game of boom or bust for recruiting

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Recruiting high school football players can be wildly successful or painfully disappointing for colleges and their fans.

On 2005's national football signing day, 3,000 LSU faithful paid $40 a person to crowd into the buffet of a Baton Rouge casino, nurse jambalaya and wait for word of East Saint John High School quarterback Ryan Perrilloux's decision.

Perrilloux, the No. 2 overall prospect in the country, according to SuperPrep magazine, didn't disappoint the crowd. Not only did Perrilloux sign with the Tigers, he boasted he was capable of winning the Heisman Trophy as early as the next fall.

Three years, two starts, one suspension and a federal investigation later, LSU fans are still waiting for Perrilloux to strike the pose.

Scenes similar to the one in Baton Rouge three years ago will take place today as college football fans wait nervously to see which blue chip prospects sign — or don't sign — with their university and where their school's recruiting class is ranked by the growing number of recruiting services.

But before fans book trips to the 2010 BCS National Championship Game at the Rose Bowl, they should realize that ranking teenage football players isn't an exact science.

A look at the players who were ranked among the nation's Top 25 prospects by two leading recruiting services in four recent classes revealed that blue chip prospects are just as likely to get arrested during their college careers as they are being named first-team All-America. The review of the college careers of the 133 recruits that received Top 25 national rankings from either SuperPrep or Rivals.com between 2002 and 2005 show mixed results.

• Only one out of every four Top 25 signees earned first-team all-conference honors in college.

• Nineteen out of the 133 earned first-team All-America honors. The same number of players were arrested during their college careers.

• Players who completed their college careers and were available for the NFL draft were more than twice as likely to go undrafted as they were to be picked in the first round.

• Twenty players were suspended at least once during their college careers. Six failed to qualify academically at the university they signed with, and 10 were ruled academically ineligible after they enrolled.

"The only way you can judge it is to see how well they play," USC coach Pete Carroll said, referring to recruiting rankings. "It's just like (NFL) draft classes — you have to wait and see how they play."

Top-ranked classes have translated into national championships for USC and Texas. Others haven't fared as well. Nebraska's 2005 recruiting class was ranked No. 1 in the country by Tom Lemming of ESPN.com.

"I'd like to believe we made all the right moves to improve our program," Nebraska coach Bill Callahan told reporters on signing day.

Three seasons later Nebraska was 5-7 and Callahan was out of a job.

The 2002 recruiting class was typical of recent classes.

Future Texas All-America quarterback Vince Young, who led the Longhorns to the 2005 national title, was Rivals.com's No. 1 prospect. The class included three other All-Americans, three players that were arrested, three who failed to qualify at the school they signed with and 12 players who went undrafted by NFL clubs.

Nate Rhodes out of East Bakersfield was ranked as the No. 2 offensive line prospect that year. Rhodes signed with Washington but suffered a career-ending back injury before enrolling. The closest Rhodes got to playing for Washington was working as a security guard at Husky Stadium.

"It isn't just that class," said Allen Wallace of the Orange County-based SuperPrep. "(Classes) like that happen all the time."

Wallace and other top recruiting analysts are quick to acknowledge the difficulty in ranking 17- and 18-year-old high school players.

"If I pick an elite 50 team and 25 guys go on to make all-conference (in college), I'm overwhelmed," Wallace said.

"Every year you can go look at the Top 100 and there are probably 20 guys you're never going to hear from again," said Rivals.com's Greg Biggins. "Every year in the top classes there's always one guy who's highly rated and that never produces. It happens every year."

West Virginia was so convinced running back Jason Gwaltney was the real deal that replicas of his jersey were on sale at the university bookstore during his freshman season.

The jerseys hung around in Morgantown longer than Gwaltney. He rushed for 186 yards on 45 carries before suffering a broken leg in midseason. When Gwaltney skipped a series of rehab sessions and classes he and the West Virginia coaching staff agreed he should transfer. Gwaltney hasn't played since.

Whitney Lewis, Wallace said, "is a classic example" of a can't miss prospect who did.

Lewis, a wide receiver out of Ventura's St. Bonaventure High, was ranked by Rivals.com as the country's No. 3 prospect in 2003 behind future Florida State linebacker Ernie Sims and Reggie Bush, the 2005 Heisman winner for USC.

Another recruiting service had Lewis ranked ahead of Bush.

But Lewis was academically ineligible for one season at USC, injured for much of two others, registering just two receptions before transferring to Northern Iowa.

"And there are a thousand other guys like Whitney Lewis," Wallace said. "He is a great example of how you really can never tell about these players. There's a lot to consider. How is he going to develop? Is he going to get hurt? Is he going to go to class? Does he have a drug problem? Will he get into the coach's dog house? What kind of crowd is he going to hang out with?"

Nearly a quarter of the 13 Top 25 prospects Florida State signed between 2002 and 2005 were arrested during their Seminole careers. Wide receiver Fred Rouse was rated as the nation's No. 6 prospect in 2005 by both SuperPrep and Rivals.com. Rouse lasted just one season in Tallahassee, dismissed from the team in January 2006 after he and linebacker A.J. Nicholson, another Top 25 prospect, were arrested and charged with breaking into an apartment and stealing electronic equipment. The apartment belonged to Seminoles running back Lorenzo Booker.

Contact the writer: 714-796-7804 or sreid@ocregister.com