Rule changes will have big impact on 2012 playoffs
The method by which teams are selected for the CIF-Southern Section football playoffs will be different starting with the 2012 season.
The changes, and these are exclusive to football: Seven-team leagues like the Century and Empire leagues will have their number of guaranteed playoff berths reduced from four to three; five-team leagues like the Sea View and South Coast will have their number of guaranteed playoff berths reduced from three to two; there no longer will be a .500-or-better overall record criteria for at-large berth consideration; and no longer will the CIF-SS have to take one league's No. 4 team over another league's No. 5 team if it feels that the No. 5 team is better than the No. 4.
If these changes were in effect this season, which football playoffs teams would not be in these playoffs? Which teams, not in the 2011 playoffs, would be in under the upcoming format?
It is difficult to say, because the football playoff selections in 2012 will be made more subjectively than before. We often have looked at the at-large teams and known that one or two of them were selected, just because of their overall record, over teams that had inferior records but were superior football teams.
But let's give it a shot in a few divisions ...
Pac-5 Division
There has been no at-large berth available in the Pac-5 Division, as all 16 teams in the bracket are automatic qualifiers (four automatic qualifiers from the Moore League, and three each from the Serra, South Coast, Sunset and Trinity leagues equals 16 teams).
Beginning next season, the seven-team Moore League no longer will get four guaranteed playoff berths. That generates a big "hooray" for people who consider the fifth- or even sixth-place team from the Trinity League to be superior to the fourth-place Moore League year after year. (All across the CIF-SS football playoffs from 2005-10, No. 4 teams that were automatic qualifiers were a cumulative 5-61 in the playoffs.) The five-team Serra and South Coast leagues no longer will get three guaranteed berths. And with the Serra and South Coast leagues losing one guaranteed berth apiece, that creates three at-large berths for the 2012 season.
If the 2012 format was in place this season, the Pac-5's automatic qualifiers would have been, in order within the leagues and keeping tiebreaking coin flip results intact: (Moore League) Long Beach Poly, Lakewood and Cabrillo of Long Beach; (Serra) Alemany of Mission Hills and Loyola of Los Angeles; (South Coast) Mission Viejo and San Clemente; (Sunset) Edison, Huntington Beach and Newport Harbor; and (Trinity) Servite, Santa Margarita and St. John Bosco of Bellflower.
That gives us 13 automatic qualifiers, leaving three at-large berths. The CIF-SS might have chosen differently, but the feeling here is that the three at-large choices – again, not handcuffed by those often-deceptive overall records – would be Bishop Amat of La Puente (6-4, tied for third place in Serra League); Mater Dei (4-6, fourth place in Trinity League) and Notre Dame of Sherman Oaks (6-4, tied for third in Serra).
Southwest Division
There were two at-large berths in this division, as there are 14 teams in the 16-team bracket that were automatic qualifiers (four each from the Century and Empire leagues, and three each from the Freeway and Sea View leagues).
Beginning next season, the seven-team Century and Empire leagues will receive three guaranteed berths apiece, and the five-team Sea View will get two guaranteed berths. That makes 11 automatic qualifiers with five at-large berths in this division in 2012. That is going to make for an entertaining at-large selection process.
If the 2012 format was in place for this season, the Southwest's automatic qualifiers would have been, in order within the leagues and keeping tiebreaking coin flips intact: (Century League) Villa Park, Brea Olinda and Foothill; (Empire) Cypress, Yorba Linda and Tustin; (Freeway) La Habra, Buena Park and Troy; and (Sea View) El Toro and Aliso Niguel. The at-large berths went to Laguna Hills (7-2, tied for second place in the Sea View) and Sonora (4-6, fourth place in the Freeway).
The expectation here is that the five at-large choices would have been Esperanza (7-3, tied for second place in the Century League); Laguna Hills; Capistrano Valley (3-7, tied for second in the Sea View); Kennedy (4-6, tied fourth in Empire); and Sonora (4-6, fourth place in Freeway). As the CIF-SS playoff committee ranked the Southwest's four leagues in this order -- 1. Century, 2. Empire, 3. Freeway, 4. Sea View -- that projection might be erroneous.
Southern Division
There was one at-large berth in this division, as there will be next year. All five of the division's leagues are six-team leagues, which continue to get three guaranteed berths under the 2012 format. The division's at-large team this year is Godinez (5-5, fourth place in the Orange Coast League).
So change in this division would be minimal. But if the elimination of the .500-or-better requirement for at-large consideration was in effect this season, then perhaps Godinez (5-5) would not have been the choice for the division's at-large team.
The only non-playoff team that was in the CIF-SS's final rankings for the Southern Division was No. 8 Irvine. As those rankings have significant impact on seeding the playoff brackets, Irvine (4-6), tied for third in the Pacific Coast League, likely would have been chosen over Godinez and over the other .500 team in the at-large pool, Katella (5-5). Also the CIF-SS playoff committee ranked the PCL as the division's strongest league.
