The CIF-Southern Section boys basketball playoffs begin this week. So, as usual, it’s time for my predictions on what will happen between now and the CIF-SS finals on March 3 and 4.
If a team that I didn’t pick to go far gets to the semifinals or even wins a championship, the “you didn’t think we could do it” stuff will come. If I pick a team to win it all, nobody says, “Hey, Fryer, thanks for believing in us,” whether that team does win it all or loses in an early round.
It’s a thankless task.
Aw, who cares? It’s a lot of fun so let’s give it a shot …
OPEN DIVISION
Top seeds: 1. Sierra Canyon of Chatsworth; 2. Chino Hills; 3. Mater Dei; 4. Bishop Montgomery of Torrance
Outook: Like last year, the top four ranked teams in the California top 20 are the top four seeds in this division. Everybody is going crazy for Chino Hills sharpshooter LaMelo Ball, and rightfully so. He is worth the price of admission every night. The best player in Southern California, though, is Sierra Canyon junior Marvin Bagley III, who is 6-foot-11, sometimes plays like he is 6-5, but never forgets he is 6-11 and should be an inside guy. That’s sort of rare these days, that a big guy understands he must play like a big guy for his team to win. JSerra has to play a first-round game at The Circus – Chino Hills. Chino Hills can overwhelm a good opponent, and JSerra is a good opponent. JSerra’s excellent forward, Sebastian Much, is trying to play through a severely sprained thumb. Bol Bol, who is 7-foot or 7-3, depending upon whom you ask, makes Mater Dei better, of course. But the Monarchs seem to lack that go-to shooter who can consistently make the 12- to 20-foot jump shot. Esperanza has Orange County’s best player, Kezie Okpala, and Brendan Harrick, who is also a fine player. But Santa Margarita has more scoring options and overall size, so the Eagles should beat Esperanza in their first-round game at Santa Margarita on Friday. In last year’s Open Division semifinals, Sierra Canyon beat Bishop Montgomery and Chino Hills beat Mater Dei. Look for a repeat this year.
Final 4: Sierra Canyon, Bishop Montgomery, Mater Dei, Chino Hills
Champion: Sierra Canyon
DIVISION 1AA
Top seeds: 1. Etiwanda; 2. St. John Bosco; 3. Santa Monica; 4. Sonora
Outook: One of the larger quirks in CIF-SS sports is that the best teams sometimes don’t get treated as such in the playoffs. Etiwanda is the top-seeded team in this division but must play a first-round away game at Beverly Hills. Second-seeded St. John Bosco must play at Santa Barbara in the first round. Three O.C. schools have a good shot at winning this division – Edison, Los Alamitos and Sonora. All three have excellent on-court chemistry and splendid coaches. Edison lost to Los Alamitos last week, but Edison was not healthy. Senior guard Randall Walker was among the Chargers’ ill players and it showed. Los Alamitos needs junior forward Jake Eyman, who seems to like blocking shots more than making them, to be on his game fire every time he is on the floor. Sonora relies on outside shooting, which can come and go for a high school team. Edison has a tough road – a first-round home game against Inglewood, then a second-round game at Tahquitz which is out there in Hemet. If Edison gets through that …
Final 4: Etiwanda, Sonora, Santa Monica, Edison
Champion: Edison
DIVISION 1A
Top seeds: 1. Harvard-Westlake; 2. Pasadena; 3. Los Altos of Hacienda Heights; 4. La Canada
Outook: This division has a dandy Orange County matchup in the first round – El Toro at Corona del Mar. Corona del Mar should win, but El Toro had a good final regular-season week, so watch out. San Clemente won the championship of a tough league, the South Coast League, but would have to play at La Cañada in the second round. Harvard-Westlake is better than its 16-11 record suggests. The Wolverines played a tough schedule. Their 6-6 sophomore, Cassius Stanley, is very good.
Final 4: Harvard-Westlake, La Cañada, Los Altos, Dominguez
Champion: Harvard-Westlake
DIVISION 2AA
Top seeds: 1. Colony of Ontario; 2. Windward of Los Angeles; 3. Villa Park; 4. Cajon
Outook: Some good Orange County teams are in this division, and there three good-looking Orange County games in the first round: Woodbridge at Cypress, Yorba Linda at Buena Park and Newport Harbor at Northwood. Cypress and Northwood should win their first-round games, but that Yorba Linda-Buena Park contest is a tad perplexing because Buena Park sometimes loses games it should win. Villa Park would be an Open Division team if Evan Battey could play, but he used up his eight semesters of athletic eligibility before this season. That’s a nice piece of coaching Kevin Reynolds has done with the Spartans (20-6), and some good on-court leadership and play from brothers Myles and Julian Franklin. Windward seems to have an edge over the rest in the athleticism department.
Final 4: Colony, Cajon, Villa Park, Windward
Champion: Windward
DIVISION 2A
Top seeds: 1. Oxnard; 2. Capistrano Valley; 3. Knight of Palmdale; 4. Vista Murrieta
Outook: Capistrano Valley has the best shot among Orange County teams of winning this one. The Cougars might have trouble with taller teams. Rancho Christian of Temecula is one of those taller teams. Their best players, though, are sophomores, 6-9 Isaiah Mobley and 6-7 Solomon Davis, and Rancho Christian moves up substantially in class after winning Division 5A last year. Still, it might take this one.
Final 4: Oxnard, Summit of Fontana, Rancho Christian, Capistrano Valley
Champion: Rancho Christian
DIVISION 3AA
Top seeds: 1.Saddleback Valley Christian; 2. Crean Luthean; 3. Rancho Mirage; 4. La Serna
Outook: Saddleback Valley Christian senior guard Trey Smith, among Orange County’s leading scorers, only recently returned to action after missing several games because of knee tendinitis. Any basketball player who has had knee tendinitis knows it’s a lot worse than it sounds. Smith is as important to Saddleback Valley Christian’s chances as any player is to any O.C. playoff team. Crean Lutheran has two players that can carry the Saints a long way, Tim Ghita, who plays bigger than his 6-4 stature, and Michael Bagatourian. Ocean View is a hidden gem. The Seahawks rarely get challenged in the Golden West League, so one wonders how they will do once they face playoff competition. If Crean Lutheran plays defense like it can and shoots consistently, it can win this division.
Final 4: Saddleback Valley Christian, La Serna, Ocean View, Crean Lutheran
Champion: Crean Lutheran
DIVISION 3A
Top seeds: 1. Hesperia; 2. St. Paul of Santa Fe Springs; 3. St. Anthony of Long Beach; 4. Adelanto
Outook: Pacifica and Savanna are the only O.C. teams in this division. Pacifica had a strong December then went 1-9 in the Empire League. Savanna has high-scoring Romulo Howard, but probably not enough elsewhere on the roster to win a CIF-SS title. Hesperia has had two great games against Mojave River League rival Oak Hills, both of which Hesperia won by two points. Could there be a rematch in the final?
Final 4: Hesperia, Adelanto, Oak Hills, St. Paul
Champion: Hesperia
DIVISION 4AA
Top seeds: 1. West Torrance; 2. Blair of Pasadena; 3. Woodcrest Christian; 4. San Gabriel
Outook: The Garden Grove League is a terrific basketball league because it’s an old-fashioned basketball league. Teams play hard-nosed defense, they pass and catch the basketball in textbook fashion, and their shot selection is good. All of that can compensate for size deficiency for a while but eventually some bigger team is going to be too much. West Torrance lost regular-season games to Foothill and Cypress. Woodcrest Christian finished second in the Ambassador League, which is a decent hoops league.
Final 4: West Torrance, Bolsa Grande, Woodcrest Chr., Blair
Champion: Blair
DIVISION 4A
Top seeds: 1. Notre Dame of Riverside; 2. Pacific of San Bernardino; 3. Shalhevet of Los Angeles; 4. St. Margaret’s
Outook: St. Margaret’s finished second behind Crean Lutheran in the Academy League. The Tartans, who have one of the county’s better scorers in Tyler Horgan, lost at Crean by three points. They could get far in this division. Notre Dame is the best team in this division and could advance to the finals via a string of lopsided scores.
Final 4: Notre Dame, St. Margaret’s, Pasadena Poly, Pacific
Champion: Notre Dame
DIVISION 5AA
Top seeds: 1. Rolling Hills Prep of San Pedro; 2. Valley Torah of Valley Village; 3. Holy Martyrs of Encino; 4. Hesperia Christian
Outook: This is a 16-team bracket. Teams only have to win three games to get to the championship game. Fairmont Prep, champion of the Express League, would have to play Holy Martyrs in the quarterfinals. Rolling Hills Prep is coached by former longtime Fairfax of Los Angeles coach Harvey Kitani. He knows how to get a team ready for a big game.
Final 4: Rolling Hills Prep, Hesperia Christian, Holy Martyrs, Valley Torah
Champion: Rolling Hills Prep
DIVISION 5A
Top seeds: 1. Coast Union of Cambria; 2. Apple Valley Christian; 3. Desert Christian Academy of Bermuda Dunes; 4. Sherman Indian of Riverside
Outook: Six teams have first-round byes in this division, including the top four seeded teams. Tarbut V’Torah is the only Orange County team in this division. TVT has had basketball success in the past, but this team is not as good as the school’s teams of 10 or so years ago. Coast Union, which has only lost to larger schools like Santa Barbara, could roll through this division.
Final 4: Coast Union, Sherman Indian, Providence of Santa Barbara, Apple Valley Christian
Champion: Coast Union
DIVISION 6
Top seeds: 1. Carnegie of Riverside; 2. Pacifica Christian; 3. Foothill Technology of Ventura; 4. Upland Christian Academy
Outook: One outstanding player can make a big difference for a team in a lower division like Division 6. Pacifica Christian has that type of player, freshman point guard Dominick Harris. He will lead the Tritons deep into this division. Carnegie, though, is the best overall team in this group. It beat Corona del Mar this season.
Final 4: Carnegie, Upland Christian, Foothill Technology, Pacifica Christian
Champion: Carnegie
Contact the writer: sfryer@scng.com